Get the answer to your question from Coach John G. Agno. What we all want is interaction with others to clarify our thoughts before taking action and to allow our perceptions to evolve over time.
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Have you ever stumbled over your destiny in one unpredictable meeting?
One moment you don't know where you are heading and then you do?
I did. It happened to me.
She came into my world like a butterfly landing on my sleeve. Fluttering there for just a second in all her beauty without a clue how she had and would change my life. One moment I didn't know what love was and then I did.
Have you every met someone for the first time and something deep inside you told that you had known her many lifetimes ago?
One moment you don't believe in love at first sight and then you do.
Her smile, her presence, her soul have made such an impression on you that you wondered where she would take you?
One moment, you are fully in charge and the next someone else is.
When you stumbled over your destiny you knew everything would be different but not specifically different until much later. One moment you stumble on to a new heading and fifty years later you cherish every moment of the adventure.
One moment can mean so much to one's life that you pray such moments will continue to bubble up and change everything.
What would it be worth to you if your friends, family and business associates were:
Living a life with more joy? Improving their productivity and communication? Gaining freedom from fear? Developing self-awareness and self-acceptance? Improving their health and vitality? Creating satisfying and mutually supportive relationships?
Living a more wonderful life is about knowing who you are and what you are meant to do with the energy to polish your natural talents. A happy life is knowing your natural talents (talents you were born with) and developing them into strengths.
Research tells us that geniuses of all kinds shared one mental trait, despite the wide range of their individual brilliance: they possessed an exceptional capacity for sustained voluntary attention.
Knowing who you are and what you are meant to do, gives you the energy to transform your life.
Jim Martens, the editor of our Currency Pro Service, gives you a preview of what's going on in the FX world post-Brexit.
Watch this new interview to learn which markets Jim's keeping his eye on.
P.S. Below the video, look for details on instant, free access to Currency Pro Service forecasts now through July 22, as part of EWI's Forex Free Week.
[Editor's Note: A text version of the interview is below.]
Alexandra Lienhard: I'm Alexandra Lienhard for ElliottWaveTV and today I'll be talking with Jim Martens, Elliott Wave International's Senior Currency Strategist.
But a brief editor's note before Jim joins me: Elliott Wave International is currently hosting its popular Forex FreeWeek. Be sure to check out the link below to get free forecasts for 11 popular FX pairs, now through July 22.
Now Jim, onto today's interview. We're living in a post-Brexit world. In your view, did forex markets change since the vote, or did Brexit not really have an effect on FX overall?
Jim Martens: Well, from my point of view, it made no difference, overall. We've spoken about this in the past: We expected the recovery in cable from May to prove corrective -- and it did. Markets started back down right after the result of the vote were announced. It was a sharp, almost historic decline. There was a lot of chatter about. But it was something that we were expecting all along. In our minds, it made no difference at all. The market was headed where the market was headed. Regardless of what news came out in the marketplace.
Alexandra: And in recent analysis, you've been stressing the British pound, the yen and the euro. Anything standout for you in those specific markets? Or as a group?
Jim: Well, they're all at interesting positions. I believe the dollar is resuming a broad-based advance relative to all its competitors. We look at cable, for instance, to start with. We'll see that it's gone nowhere in the last few weeks or so. We had that historic move after the vote and it's held its ground since, but I think that's just a pause in a larger downtrend. So again, it's no change in our thinking there. And when I look at something say, like euro/dollar, which is popular amongst traders, we look at the same sort of thing. It's been going nowhere, there's been a lot of volatility, which really stretches back more than a year now. We've been tracking it and calling the ups and downs of the market, but I think that's coming to an end, and there's going to be a substantial move ahead. It could be underway, and if it's not already, it's soon to start from nearby levels. The markets are getting quite exciting from this point on.
Alexandra: So let's broaden out. Looking bigger-picture, what are you watching? What are you keeping your eye on in the months and quarters ahead?
Jim: Well, one market where our view has changed has been dollar/yen. We've been looking for a bottom, yet the market has continued to decline. We failed to see evidence that the turn had occurred, and I like to wait before I change my view, or change my opinion of the market trend, until I see evidence that a change has occurred. But we may have finally seen that in the last few weeks. It has rallied sharply, so I put that back in the camp of dollar strength. If dollar/yen is advancing, that's dollar strengthening, that's the yen weakening. So it's falling into place in the rest of the picture, as I see it. And that is that the dollar is going to be strong going forward. That's going to be the story. You're bound to hear about that over the coming months. We'll hear about it on the equities side, that it's pressuring corporate earnings, and what are we going to do about that. But it's going to be a broad-based move relative to all of its competitors.
Alexandra: Well, FX has always been one of the more volatile asset classes out there. Thanks for chatting today, Jim.
Jim: My pleasure, Alex.
Alexandra: Now through July 22, you can get free access to our premium grade Currency Pro Service during Forex FreeWeek. Follow the link below to get free forecasts for 11 popular FX pairs.
Thanks for watching ElliottWaveTV.
Now through 5 p.m. Eastern time Friday, July 22, get FREE unrestricted, 24/7 access to intraday, daily, weekly and monthly forecasts -- including charts and videos from our premium-grade Currency Pro Service.
Currency Pro Service's team of currency experts brings you forecasts for 11 popular FX pairs: EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, U.S. Dollar and more.
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Forex: "The Markets Are Getting Exciting!". EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
In his Trader's Classroom and Commodity Junctures services, master instructor Jeffrey Kennedy often uses traditional technical indicators with the Wave Principle to add confidence to his analysis. He starts with his Elliott wave count, then looks at technical indicators such as RSI and MACD to "build a case" for his outlook.
Watch this 5 minute video to see the process he goes through to identify high-confidence trade setups.
Test Your Elliott Wave Counting Skills Now!
It's easy to get overwhelmed with counting Elliott waves. We understand that so we challenge you to test out your wave counting skills on the charts in this resource. We'll show you a chart and then you can print it to label it and, finally, check the answer and explanation.
You'll find some charts to be rather basic and others to present a bit of a challenge. It doesn't matter if you're a novice or experienced Elliottician, the more you practice the better you'll become at identifying waves.
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline The Wave Principle + Technical Indicators = High-Confidence Trade Setups. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Editor's note: You'll find a text version of this story below the video.
Free Report: "A Secret New Government Tax - Unveiled."Read it now >>
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Welcome to Chart of the Day.
Here we see a weekly chart of two indexes, which represent two strongly-related sectors in the financial industry -- namely banking and hedge funds.
The KBW Bank Index includes the "money center" and large regional banks, while the HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index shows the overall composition of the hedge fund universe.
At a glance, you can see how similar the patterns are in these two financial sectors.
Both indexes peaked in 2007, the year the financial crisis began.
Both saw a rapid, precipitous decline into late 2008-early 2009.
And, importantly, both sectors have moved up from those deep lows. But -- you can plainly see that at best, the "progress" has been weak and slow.
Now, "weak and slow" is not what you expect to see in a bull market recovery. Instead, it IS what you expect to see in a three-wave correction -- or in Elliott Wave terms, an A-B-C correction.
Specifically: These three waves are only correcting the larger, dominant downtrend.
This chart is republished as part of a special, free report that we've just posted on elliottwave.com. This report includes other charts and major excerpts from our current issues of The Financial Forecast, and the European Financial Forecast.
The charts & excerpts spell out the virtually unreported government actions that amount to a secret tax -- which is why the report's title is, "A Secret New Government Tax - Unveiled."
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Why Not to "Bank" on It. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
We should soon see more "all or nothing" days in the stock market
By Elliott Wave International
Bespoke Investment Group uses an interesting term to describe recent stock market action: "all or nothing." In the stock market, "all or nothing" days occur when at least 80% of the stocks in the S&P 500 index advance or decline.
It's typical to see a spike in "all or nothing" days when there's a jump in market volatility. But the recent unrest in the stock market has seen a rare phenomenon:
"The frequency of all or nothing days in the S&P 500 over the last 15 trading days is unheard of," [according to a Bespoke market researcher]. "Using our breadth data going back to 1990, we have never seen a 15-trading day period where the S&P 500 saw as many or more all or nothing days than it has in the current period."
CNBC, September 10
Specifically, there were 11 of these occurrences in the 15 trading sessions.
Also, in a one-month period, the CBOE Volatility Index jumped 120%. Yet -- the panic we saw in the market in late August proves that few traders saw it coming.
Elliott Wave International's subscribers were prepared better than most. On August 19, EWI's Elliott Wave Theorist called for a "pandemonium" in stocks, and a few weeks before, EWI's July Elliott Wave Financial Forecast offered this chart and commentary:
This chart ... shows the open interest in puts relative to calls on the VIX, which indicates the ratio of investors' open option contracts betting on a VIX move. On June 19, the ratio dropped to 0.248, its second lowest level since February 16, 2007 (0.165). ...
When the stock market's decline kicks into high gear, volatility will spike to record levels as will the p/c ratio. The era of low volatility will be replaced by head-spinning stock market moves that will shake global stock markets to their foundation.
You remember what soon followed: Stocks fell hard, and on August 24, the S&P cash index saw a selloff low of 1867.01.
Since then, as our September 11 Short Term Update chart below shows [wave labels available to subscribers], trading volume has steadily contracted.
Some stock market bulls are bolstered by the lull in trading volume. But know this: Our indicators strongly suggest that now is not the time for such confidence in a continued uptrend. We expect the number of "all or nothing" days, to use Bespoke's term, to increase dramatically when volatility returns.
These are just a few examples of the insights that EWI brings their subscribers every month. See below how you can read the complete August Theorist -- FREE.
If you invest in U.S. stocks, please stop what you're doing, sit down and pick up Robert Prechter's Aug. 19 investment forecast. Prechter published one of the most widely read investment letters of the 1980s, and he remains one of the most widely known market technicians in the world. On Aug. 19, before the latest spike in volatility, he warned of "pandemonium in the stock market" and a "stunning decline in US stock prices." Now you can read his complete, subscriber-level report that predicted what you see today.
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline U.S. Stocks: Volume, Volatility -- and What Should Come Next. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
These 4 charts show why you should be careful with this common investment "wisdom"
By Elliott Wave International
Robert Prechter's monthly Elliott Wave Theorist once published a ten-part study explaining why traditional financial models failed to foresee the 2007-2009 financial crisis -- and, more importantly, why they are doomed to fail again (and again).
On Thursday (Sept. 17), the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged. On Friday, stocks opened down big. But before you join those who blame it on the Fed, please read this excerpt from Prechter's eye-opening study.
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Economic theory holds that bonds compete with stocks for investment funds. The higher the income that investors can get from safe bonds, the less attractive is a set rate of dividend payout from stocks; conversely, the less income that investors can get from safe bonds, the more attractive is a set rate of dividend payout from stocks. A statement of this construction appears to be sensible.
And it would be, if it were made in the field of economics. For example, "Rising prices for beef make chicken a more attractive purchase." This statement is simple and true. But in the field of finance such statements fly directly in the face of the evidence.
Figure 3 shows a history of the four biggest stock market declines of the past hundred years. They display routs of 54% to 89%.
Figure 3:
In all these cases, interest rates fell, and in two of those cases they went all the way to zero! In those cases, investors should have traded all their bonds for stocks. But they didn't; instead, they sold stocks and bought bonds. What is it about the value of dividends that investors fail to understand? Don't they get it?
As in most arguments from exogenous cause...one can argue just as effectively the opposite side of the claim. It is just as easy to sound rational and objective when saying this:
"When an economy implodes, corporate values fall, depressing the stock market. At the same time, demand for loans falls, depressing interest rates. In other words, when the economy contracts, both of these trends move down together. Conversely, when the economy expands, both of these trends move up together. This thesis explains why interest rates and stock prices go in the same direction."
See? Just as rational and sensible. On this basis, suddenly the examples in Figure 3 are explained. And so are the examples in Figure 4. Right?
Figure 4:
No, they're not, because, as the first version of the claim would have it, there in fact have been plenty of times when the stock prices rose and interest rates fell. This was true, for example, from 1984 to 1987, when stock prices more than doubled. And there have been plenty of times when stock prices fell and interest rates rose, as in 1973-1974 when stock prices were cut nearly in half. Figures 5 and 6 show examples.
Figure 5:
Figure 6:
At this point, conventional theorists might try formulating a complex web of interrelationships to explain these changing, contradictory correlations. But I have yet to read that any such approach has given any economist an edge in forecasting interest rates, stock prices or the relationship between them.
Read about more common investment "wisdom" you should avoid in this free 33-page eBook. It takes the 10 most dangerous investment myths head on and exposes the truth about each in a way every investor can understand.
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline "Interest Rates Drive Stocks"? See 4 Charts That Tell You the Truth. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Technical versus fundamental analysis? The winner is...
By Elliott Wave International
Editor's note: You'll find the text version of the story below the video.
Technical versus fundamental analysis: Which approach yields better investment results?
A new study by three finance professors offers an answer.
The focus of their study were a thousand pairs of recommendations made between November 2011 and December 2014 on the TV show "Talking Numbers" ... The first half of each pair was a recommendation from a top technician about a stock in the news; the second half was a recommendation about that same stock from a leading fundamental analyst. [Marketwatch, Sept. 4]
This chart shows the results:
In the nine months following each recommendation, the stocks technical analysts identified as strong buys on average outperformed the broad stock market by 7.9%. The stocks they mentioned as strong sells underperformed by 8.9%.
By contrast, the strong buy recommendations from fundamental analysts underperformed the overall market during the same timeframe. More than that, the fundamental analysts' strong sell recommendations performed closely to their strong buys.
Technical analysts were the clear winners.
Elliott wave analysis of financial markets is a specific form of technical analysis.
Our subscribers have recently been well served by the Elliott wave method and other technical indicators. Consider this commentary from the August 19 Financial Forecast Short Term Update:
The decline from yesterday's highs -- 17,568.40 in the Dow and 2103.46 in the S&P -- is impulsive (i.e., five waves) ... The impulse wave down indicates that the next larger-degree of trend is down. ... The weakening internal measures of breadth, volume and momentum are bearish.
... Nearly every index declined in unison, each breaking their respective lows from Wednesday morning's weak open. ... At today's intraday lows, there were more than five stocks down for every one up on the NYSE. The up/down volume ratio was lopsidedly bearish too. ... The closing a/d was 0.33:1, with three stocks down for every one up. Down volume on the Big Board was 81% of up plus down volume. ... When will selling pressure again materialize to drive prices significantly lower? The answer is that it's starting to materialize now.
The S&P 500 gapped lower at the open during the next two trading sessions (August 20-21).
On August 24, the intraday low for the S&P 500 was 1867.01 -- down nearly 13% from its May 20 peak. The Dow's intraday low was 15,370.30 -- down 16.4% from its May 19 peak.
After the Labor Day weekend (Sept. 8), stocks traded well above those lows.
But beware: The Elliott wave model and other technical indicators suggest that more market turmoil is ahead.
Technicians tend to rise in prominence in bear markets, and they appear poised to do so again.
Financial media use news and economic events to explain market moves. Steer clear of this misguided approach. Learn what really moves the markets with The Elliott Wave Crash Course.
In this series of three FREE videos, Senior Tutorial Instructor Wayne Gorman demolishes the widely held notion that news drives the markets. Each video will provide a basis for using Elliott wave analysis in your own trading and investing decisions.
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Stock Market Forecasts: Why You Should Consider Technical Analysis. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Elliott Wave International senior analyst shows you how to identify quality trade setups
By Elliott Wave International
"I always will be an Elliottician, but other technical tools have merit and are indeed worthwhile: they allow me to build a case, build a more confident reason for making a forecast and for taking a trade; making a trading decision."
-Jeffrey Kennedy
I recently asked Elliott Wave International analyst Jeffrey Kennedy to name his 3 favorite technical tools (besides the Wave Principle). He told me that Japanese candlesticks, RSI, and MACD Indicators are currently his top methods to support trade setups.
In this 3-part series, we will share examples of how to use these 3 tools to "build a case" in the markets you trade. These practical lessons allow you to preview how Jeffrey applies techniques with proven reliability to support his analysis.
We begin this first lesson with a basic candlestick-style price chart.
You may be familiar with an Open-High-Low-Close (OHLC) chart: comprised of vertical lines with small horizontal lines on each side. The top of each vertical line is the high and the bottom is the low. The small horizontal lines on either side represent the open and close for that period.
Here's an example of a Japanese Candlestick chart:
Japanese candlestick charts employ the same data that OHLC price charts do except that the data is expressed differently. The real body is the range between the open and close, and appears as a small block. Shadows are the lines that extend upward and downward from this block, and represent the highs and lows.
Next, take a look at the chart below.
Two bearish candlestick reversal patterns that Jeffrey finds highly reliable are the Evening Star and the Bearish Engulfing Patterns. This weekly continuation chart for the Canadian Dollar combines a 20-period moving average to show that the trend is down -- allowing you to focus on bearish reversal candlestick patterns to spot trading opportunities.
Jeffrey notes that "combining these reversal patterns with moving averages makes them even more dynamic because they focus your attention in the direction of the larger trend."
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Japanese Candlesticks begin our spotlight on Kennedy's top 3 ancillary tools for trading with the Wave Principle. Over the next two weeks, we'll share parts two and three-- how Kennedy uses RSI and MACD Indicators to support his Elliott wave interpretation.
If you are interested in learning how to become a more successful technical trader, get more lessons like this in Jeffrey Kennedy's free report, 6 Lessons to Help You Spot Trading Opportunities in Any Market.
This free report includes 6 different lessons that you can apply to your charts immediately. Learn how to spot and act on trading opportunities in the markets you follow, starting now!
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Top 3 Technical Tools Part 1: Japanese Candlesticks. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Editor's note: This video was excerpted from a new multimedia report, "The New Financial Theory that Could Make the Difference in Your Investing Success," from Elliott Wave International, the world's largest financial forecasting firm. Authored by Robert Prechter, the full report demonstrates the failures of the modern investing paradigm and suggests a radically new approach that can make the difference in your investing success. Click here to read and watch the full, four-part multimedia report -- it's free.
The director of the Socionomics Institute, Mark Almand, came up with an analogy to help explain socionomic causality in people. And I'm so jealous that he came up with this idea, because it's so cool. I just love it. So I'm privileged to be able to embellish on it and present it to you now.
It goes like this: Suppose you got a job -- you're down and out, you finally got offered a job, so you take it -- as a sentinel on an oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico. Your bosses tell you, "Look, we just want you to watch the seas all the time. We don't know what could happen -- maybe some radical greens might come up -- so we just want you to keep an eye on things. Just let us know if there's anything out of the ordinary."
Well, you can't stay awake 24 hours, so you've got another guy who's doing it with you, and you trade shifts. And so you're out there, and you're looking at the ocean, and everything is calm and normal, when all of a sudden, over toward the left side of the horizon, you see this little group of people, apparently standing on top of the water. You watch for your eight-hour shift, then you come back the next day, and you notice they've moved a little bit farther. So you're watching this, and as the days go by, you see this little group of people, and they're not swimming; they're not really walking; they're just standing around on the water. But they're moving around as the days go by.
After a few more days go by, you notice a barge floating out in the sea. So you start talking to your buddy about this.
You say, "Look, I've noticed that these people seem to be floating around; they're moving around the ocean. And I noticed this barge out there. It always seems to be about the same distance from the people, but I can't tell if there's a relationship between these two weird things happening. Tell you what: When I'm on, I'm going to take this big blackboard here, and I'm going to write on it. I'm going to follow the path where the people are going and the barge, and then when I'm sleeping and you're up here, you do the same thing, and we'll sort of graph it and see what we end up with."
So they agree to do this. Pretty soon, this is the picture that they've drawn.
The dotted line is the path that the people have taken, moving around on the surface of the water. And the dashed line -- the thick dashed line -- is the path that this barge has taken. And sure enough, the people are still there every day, and the barge is still there every day, and they're just doing these seemingly random moves, but the barge is still back there.
You start thinking, "What could explain what's going on here?"
Your friend says, "Well, I've been thinking about it, and I've got a theory." He tells you his theory, and you kind of look at him oddly, and say, "Well, that's kind of a weird idea you have." And here's the theory that he gives you: The barge has its own engine and goes where it wants. The people are psychic, and they are anticipating where that barge is going to go. They don't do it perfectly, so they kind of wander around in front of it. But as the barge follows, it proves that they have foreknowledge of where that barge is going. And that's my theory."
You say, "Well, I've been thinking about it, too. I have an explanation for this, because I really don't believe people can walk on the water, and you're kind of accepting that as magic. I don't think people are psychic, either. You're kind of accepting these ideas, but I think, somehow, we have to deal with reality here. So I have a different idea.
"I'm a socionomist, and here's the way I see it: There must be a hidden variable, something we can't see that's making this pattern happen. I'm postulating there's a submarine under the people. They're not walking. They're not swimming. They're just standing around. And there's probably some sort of towing device, a chain or something, between the submarine and the barge. And this kind of explains it: Wherever this submarine wanders, that chain pulls the barge, but it doesn't follow immediately. It's not on the exact same path, because this is a long distance, so it's kind of roughly following in the same path."
He tells you, "You're crazy!" I don't see any submarine. And you say, "Well, no, we can't see it. But this would explain it without the magic, without the psychic stuff and the walking on water; you know, everything is taken into account."
"I just can't see it," he says.
Well, why am I showing you this analogy? Because this is exactly what we get in terms of the way economists explain what the stock market is doing. They say the economy is the driver, and the stock market follows in advance. How does it do that? Investors are psychic. Seriously. They say investors are looking into the future, three to six months, and they're buying or selling their stocks in accordance with what they will do. The economy is running on its own. It's got its own engine, and these people are just somehow psychic. They know what the economy is going to do three to six months in advance. And that's the accepted explanation for why the stock market is a leading indicator.
On the other hand, socionomic theory says social mood is the driver. The stock market leads, because its follows directly from social mood. And the economy follows at a distance, because it takes times to make economic decisions. There's no magic, no psychic. One thing follows another. It is direct causality. I kind of like that, because I think it puts things into perspective.
Most of the economists are saying, "You guys are on the fringe." Well, I think when you look at this kind of explanation, maybe it's they who are on the fringe.
Editor's note: This video was excerpted from a new multimedia report, "The New Financial Theory that Could Make the Difference in Your Investing Success," from Elliott Wave International, the world's largest financial forecasting firm. Authored by Robert Prechter, the full report demonstrates the failures of the modern investing paradigm and suggests a radically new approach that can make the difference in your investing success. Click here to read and watch the full, four-part multimedia report -- it's free.
