Prepared for the Unexpected?

We have a natural tendency to look for instances that confirm our story and our vision of the world--these instances are always easy to find.  You take past instances that corroborate your theories and you treat them as evidence. 

Those who believe in the unconditional benefits of past experience should consider this pearl of wisdom allegedly voiced by a famous ship's captain:

"But in my experience, I have never been in any accident...of any sort worth speaking about.  I have seen but one vessel in distress in all my years at sea.  I never saw a wreck and never have been wrecked nor was I ever in any predicament that threatened to end in disaster of any sort."  E.J. Smith, 1907, Captain, RMS Titanic

Captain Smith's ship sank in 1912 in what became the most talked about shipwreck in history.

How can we logically go from specific instances to reach general conclusions?

Bertand Russell's "Problem of Inductive Knowledge" (i.e. what we have observed from given objects and events) reminds us there are traps built into any kind of knowledge gained from observation. 

Consider a turkey that is fed every day.  Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race "looking out for its best interests," as a politician would say.  On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey.  It will incur a revision of an assumption or belief.

What can a turkey learn about what is in store for it tomorrow from the events of yesterday?  A lot, perhaps, but certainly a little less than it thinks, and it is just that "little less" that may make all the difference.  Consider that the feeling of safety reached its maximum when the risk was at the highest.  Something has worked in the past, until---well, it unexpectedly no longer does, and what we have learned from the past turns out to be at best irrelevant or false, at worst viciously misleading.

You may be the turkey when:

• You are surprised by a job loss that forces you to think about your career transition
• When your promotion is soured by your failure to effectively lead others...resulting in a demotion or a "you're fired!"
• Your assumptions and beliefs (that doing good work is all it takes) bump you up against a glass ceiling.

Source: "The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Tales (Random House)

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable